Aurora visibility tonight
Choose a location to load NOAA activity and local conditions.
Nowcast versus Kp forecast
NOAA OVATION models activity around its forecast time, usually 30–90 minutes ahead using upstream solar-wind measurements. It is not an all-night forecast. Kp is a global three-hour geomagnetic index; observed, estimated and predicted records are labelled separately. The next-24-hour maximum is a planning trend, not a city-specific chance.
Activity is not personal visibility
We compare the nearest one-degree model cell and the strongest cell within 800 km in the geographic poleward direction. Northern locations look north, southern locations south; no poleward direction is assumed at the equator. Nearby activity is only a signal in the oval, not a calculation of elevation or horizon visibility. Geographic latitude is not magnetic latitude.
Why clouds, darkness and the Moon matter
The tool finds a low-cloud hour when the calculated Sun is below −18°. This conservative darkness rule can miss bright aurora in twilight. Heavy cloud can obscure strong activity. The Moon is a secondary contrast factor for weak aurora, not a veto on a bright display. Use an unobstructed poleward horizon away from local lights and check access and safety yourself.
Sources and accuracy note
Opportunity labels are conservative, uncalibrated heuristics, not NOAA-issued alerts. Conditions may change rapidly. Missing or expired NOAA data never becomes a fabricated live result. Sources and calculation rules reviewed October 8, 2026; live timestamps below come from the data itself.